Blood product demand forecast modeling using clinical predictors

Blood transfusion is one of the most crucial and commonly administered therapeutics worldwide. The
need for more accurate and efficient ways to manage blood demand and supply is an increasing concern
in many countries. Building a technology-based, robust blood demand and supply system that can achieve
the goals of reducing wastage and shortage, while maintaining the safety of blood usage, is essential in
modern healthcare organizations. Many countries have recognized the importance of incorporating
technology and mathematical models into blood inventory planning and management. There are a
number of studies addressing blood inventory and ordering, blood allocation policies and simulation
studies for blood supply networks, but to-date few forecasting models incorporating patient clinicallyrelated
indicators have been developed. The Transfusion Registry for Utilization, Surveillance and
Tracking (TRUST) database at McMaster provides more than 16 years of data on hospital inventory for all
products, as well as transfusion and clinical information on all patients admitted to Hamilton hospitals.
In collaboration with Canadian Blood Services (CBS) and McMaster, we will use this data and information
from CBS to develop a comprehensive demand forecasting model for blood products and plasma
derivatives, which could potentially be extended to other locations in Canada.

DOWN, Douglas

McMaster University

Blood Efficiency Accelerator Program

Ontario

$30,000